The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in an interesting spot at the 50-game mark of the season.
They currently sit in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and are on pace for 98 points, a substantial drop-off from previous years.
Much of the play this year has been inconsistent, something the team, which has Stanley Cup aspirations, did not expect going in.
As the March 8 trade deadline quickly approaches, the decision falls on General Manager Brad Treliving to either bolster the roster for a potential playoff run, stand pat or sell off pieces.
“Certainly, we are continuing to watch our team. We are continuing to see if there are ways to help it,” Treliving said.
The roster as it stands right now could use a few improvements. The team’s bottom six forwards have provided little offensively. The defence corps as a whole has been an issue on many nights.
Their play on the ice and their underlying statistics suggest this. For example, Willian Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and John Tavares netted 105 goals so far this season and the other 20 players scored 71.
The Leafs are currently 16th in the league in expected goals percentage and 14th in shot attempts percentage, according to MoneyPuck.
It comes after finishing in the top 10 in the league in these categories in the previous three seasons, indicating this has not been a case of bad luck.
As a result of trading away many high picks in previous seasons, the team now has a thin prospect pipeline and few future high picks to use in a potential trade.
So what is the right approach?
For starters, last year’s trade deadline saw about a third of the roster overhauled. That will certainly not occur.
Conversely, it would be foolish to sell at a time when the team has many prime-age elite-level talents on their roster.
A conservative approach seems best considering the circumstances the Leafs currently find themselves.
This means they should still be looking at any possible way to upgrade the team while continuing to operate cautiously.
The Leafs do not appear to be a legitimate contender this year. It would not be wise to spend premium assets on a rental player who will most likely not re-sign.
However, they should target players with terms on their contracts and use mid-level picks and prospects to address the needs on the blue line and of the bottom six.
As much as this year is important for the franchise, its future must be kept in mind.
This is a team that is pressed up against the cap. It needs every contribution from young players on entry-level deals as they can get until the cap rises.
While this won’t lead to them being favourites in the playoffs, there are just too many holes to plug with the current roster and not enough assets to fill them.
Their best bet at this point is to do some tinkering, see how the year plays out, hope to get hot and then make major moves in the offseason.