Disappointment has been no stranger to the Toronto Blue Jays, from being swept in the American League Wild Card Series this past season to missing out on two-time American League (AL) MVP Shohei Ohtani in free agency.
When Blue Jays General Manager Ross Atkins approached the mic at his first media appearance of the new year, he had the opportunity to outline a plan to right the ship.
It was a chance to provide Blue Jays fans with something to get excited about going into the upcoming year.
Atkins did the opposite.
“We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” Atkins said.
Toronto ranked third in the MLB in runs in 2021, scoring 846, followed by a decline to 775 in 2022 and dropping even further to 746 in 2023.
With runners in scoring position in 2023, the Blue Jays hit .260 and in 2022 that number was very similar at .258. Both these were down from the .266 average in 2021.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the 2021 AL MVP runner-up and face of the franchise, encapsulates the team’s struggle.
Guerrero peaked in 2021 posting 6.3 wins above replacement (WAR), an all-encompassing statistic of overall value.
Since then, he has posted a 2.8 WAR in 2022 and a disappointing 1.0 WAR this past season.
All of these indicate the issue is more than just a blip, but rather the beginning of a consistent decline.
But if Atkins is given the benefit of the doubt and it is a blip, the least the Jays should aim for is the same production in 2024 with their offseason moves.
They haven’t done that to this point.
The Jays have gotten worse.
Toronto let third baseman Matt Chapman walk in free agency while the signing of utility infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa indicated the Jays could manage at third base with a combination of Kiner-Falefa and Santiago Espinal.
Kiner-Falefa and Espinal accounted for a combined 0.3 WAR in 2023, which doesn’t come close to Chapman’s 3.5 WAR.
The Jays also brought back centre fielder Kevin Kiermaier, a controversial signing given his age, 33, a position Daulton Varsho, 27, can play just as well defensively.
Varsho also has far more power, which is valuable to overall run-scoring efforts, as well as uncommon among centre fielders.
The Jays should’ve focused their efforts on trading for Juan Soto, who has since joined the Yankees. Or they could have signed the career-revitalized former MVP Cody Bellinger.
Although Bellinger is currently unsigned, it’s speculated Toronto won’t make an offer given their outfield depth.
The Jays show no hope for improvement offensively, and Atkins not accepting the facts staring him in the face will not change anything.
With the young Baltimore Orioles roster winning 101 games last season, the New York Yankees making significant improvements this offseason, and the Tampa Bay Rays somehow always finding a way to win, their path to success isn’t getting easier.
The Blue Jays could slip into irrelevance if Atkins fails to accept reality. The time for him to act is now.