A new Red Sea military strategy is required to counter the attacks on shipping by Ansar Allah, widely known as the Houthi movement.
American-led efforts have failed to deter the Houthis from menacing the important global shipping route that runs through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The canal alone handles about 12 per cent of the globe’s trade, according to the U.S. Naval Institute.
The naval coalition, established after Houthi attacks began in mid-November, has largely prevented serious destruction of commercial vessels by shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.
Missile defense systems with unit costs of a million dollars or more are being used to shoot down Houthi drones which cost mere thousands of dollars.
More important than the expense, the lack of a determined response has invited the Houthis to continue their attacks as they sneer at mostly toothless American threats.
The Biden Administration has not wanted to intervene militarily in Yemen, both for domestic political reasons in an election year and for fear of opening a new front in a wider regional war.
However, this front was opened the moment Houthi forces began targeting commercial shipping, which threatens the global economy and has only expanded with the latest attack.
Following the Houthi’s largest attack on Jan. 9., involving at least 18 drones, two cruise missiles and one ballistic missile, the strategic calculus has finally changed.
American and British forces, with multinational support, launched air and missile strikes on targets in Yemen.
The strikes on Jan. 22 “specifically targeted a Houthi underground storage site and locations associated with the Houthis’ missile and air surveillance capabilities,” according to a U.S. Department of Defence statement.
An earlier statement by the department said targets included Houthi missile, radar and unmanned vehicle capabilities used to attack vessels in international waters.
This is welcome, but a once-off attack will not end the Houthi threat as they can absorb a single salvo — no matter how large — and continue to threaten shipping lanes.
The Houthis have faced a years-long failed Saudi military campaign and feel confident in their ability to withstand American strikes.
A sustained air campaign is required to demolish their ability to target shipping.
This should be clear to the Biden Administration, which has launched subsequent strikes on the Houthis, despite initial confidence that Tuesday’s strikes would be enough of a statement.
This campaign will likely last months, perhaps even years and should be modelled on the air campaign against Islamic State.
The Houthis have no political incentives to end their strikes on shipping, with their actions bolstering their domestic support.
The U.S. should listen to its mantra and cease negotiating with terrorists.
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have failed. It is time for a new military strategy in the Red Sea.