Toronto is about a week and a half out from deciding who a new mayor and this by-election has more than 100 candidates. The top six candidates have debated numerous times over the last few weeks in an attempt to sway voter support.
But what has been less documented and is less clear is how Torontonians are responding.
Toronto Elections reported that there was an almost 12 per cent increase in voters participating in the advance polls this year compared to the last mayoral election.
While this increase might be a sign of increased turnout for this year, 2022’s municipal election saw the lowest voter turnout in Ontario’s history.
Many experts in the political science field speculate people are experiencing political fatigue.
With multiple elections taking place in 2022, June 26 will be the third vote Toronto has seen in the span of a year.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said advance polls don’t indicate much of what the actual outcome of a vote is going to be.
He said there are many reasons why people may decide to sit this one out.
“One reason might be in the municipal election last autumn, not only when you went to vote, were you voting for mayor, you were also voting for school trustees and counsellors,” he said. “So, you may have been one of those people who went out to vote because you know you wanted vote for your neighbour to become the school trustee or the counsellor.”
Wiseman also said the time of year this election is taking place might be a reason people decide not to participate.
“It’s being held at the end of June. A lot of people are just not as engaged in politics at this time of year as they are in the autumn when elections or municipal elections are held,” he said.
This also marks the first time the city has had a by-election for mayor, Wiseman said.
However, he also said there are many reasons why Toronto might actually see an increase in voter turnout on June 26.
Unlike the last time people cast their ballots, this mayoral race is “wide open,” Wiseman said, and competition might encourage people to cast their ballots.
“A big reason [people did not vote last year] was everybody knew in the election that John Tory was going to win,” he said. “Even his opponents knew, he knew, the media knew. So that was a disincentive for a lot of people to vote.”
While he did acknowledge the large gap in support Olivia Chow has created between herself and her opponents, there are no incumbents in this race, and incumbents “almost always get re-elected,”,Wiseman said.